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ERICA
European Risk and Incidence, a Coordinated Analysis
Ongoing trial
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Author(s) |
(a) and (b) ERICA research group
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Title(s) |
(a) The CHD risk-map of Europe
(b) Prediction of coronary heart disease in Europe. The 2nd report of the WHO-ERICA Project
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Reference(s) |
(a) Eur Heart J 1988;9 Suppl 1:1-36
(b) Eur Heart J 1991;12:291-7
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Disease |
Coronary heart disease (CHD)
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Purpose |
To establish, through uniform analysis, the distribution of CHD risk factors in Europe, to compute on this basis a risk-map of Europe and finally, by using available follow-up data, to devise European coefficients for the multiple logistic function prediction of future CHD events
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Study design |
Collection of all existing cardiovascular disease epidemiological studies in Europe and central analysis of the data
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Follow-up |
Started in 1982 and still continuing
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Patients |
151,923 subjects from 35 studies and 17 countries
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Results |
There have been adequate 6-year follow-up data so far from 18,931 of 84,609 men in the 40-59 year age group, making it possible to assess CHD mortality in relation to five risk factors (age, serum cholesterol, SBP, body mass index and cigarette smoking). Except for body mass index, all appear as significant contributors to multiple risk. Age and cholesterol in the South and SBP in the West do not reach the level of significance. Body mass index does not seem to contribute significantly to the risk of CHD in Europe, except in the South. By applying the multiple logistic function analysis, coefficients for the prediction of observed CHD deaths in the four regions (North, South, East and West) were computed. Application of these coefficients showed that > 50% of all deaths occurred in the highest quintile (20%) of the initial multiple risk distribution
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